1993

"The traditional copywriter is dead." The date of his passing: November 2, 1992: The issue date for Michael Schrage's " Adweek column wherein he pronounced this acclaimed professional's demise. Schrage predicts that the impending world of interactive television will require scripting for "dialogue," or response, not just "display."

The roots of our direct marketing techniques, whether direct mail, catalog or electronic media, push deeply into the past-millennial of in-person selling styles that are still practiced today on showroom floors, over the phone, in living-room product parties and at state fairs. Periodically, I need to draw back from my direct marketer role and remember there is no more effective way to sell than person-to- person. It allows for the greatest flexibility in responding to and fulfilling the individuals needs - the essence of sales.

The early history of infomercials has been entrepreneurial. Entrepreneurs from all kinds of fields, such as franchising, computer hardware and print advertising were getting into the television marketing field selling new and unique products not available at retail. In 1984, infomercials could be produced for $15,000 to $25,000 per production and generate as much as $50-million in sales, and one out of three could be a hit. Our sales-to-media ratio often was 10-to-1. These infomercials were often "one-step" and one payment offers. But most importantly, we would only pay an average of $50 per half hour for the media.

General Motors, Kodak, Chrysler, Bell Atlantic. Braun, Radio Shack and even Ross Perot are hot on TV infomercial marketing. These half-hour TV commercials are a billion-dollar industry now. But by 1998, expect 10 times that in sales revenue.

Want to put an easy $250,000 in your pocket? Don't do that infomercial you've been dreaming about! When your chances for success are a slim one out of seven, why bother? Probably 75 infomercials will he produced this year at an average cost of $250,000 each, including media and staff expenses. By my calculations, $16,000,000 will go down the tubes.